China’s population decreased by 3.39 million people

China’s population decline continued into 2025, with the total number of citizens dropping by 3.39 million to 1.40489 billion, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.

This marks the fourth consecutive year of population shrinkage, highlighting deepening demographic challenges driven by record-low birth rates, an aging population, and rapid urbanization.

Key Demographic Statistics for China in 2025

• Total population: 1.40489 billion (down 3.39 million from 2024).
• Births: 7.92 million, with a birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000 people — one of the lowest in the world.
• Deaths: 11.31 million, with a death rate of 8.04 per 1,000.
• Natural population change: -3.39 million (more deaths than births).

Gender and Age Structure Changes

The gender imbalance persists, though both groups saw declines:

• Male population: 716.85 million (-0.3% or roughly 2.15 million).
• Female population: 688.04 million (-0.1% or roughly 0.69 million).

China’s workforce is shrinking while the elderly population grows rapidly:

• Working-age population (16–59 years): 851.36 million (-0.7% from 2024).
• Population aged 65 and over: 223.65 million (+1.5%, continuing the sharp rise in elderly dependency ratio).

Urbanization Continues to Rise

Despite overall population loss, China’s urban transformation accelerated:

• Urban population: 953.8 million (+10.3 million, +1%).
• Rural population: 451.09 million (-13.69 million, -2.9%).
• Urbanization rate: 67.89% — a new milestone reflecting ongoing rural-to-urban migration.

Causes of China’s Ongoing Population Decline

The sharp drop in births stems from multiple long-term factors:

• Legacy effects of the one-child policy (1979–2015), which altered family norms.
• High costs of child-rearing, housing, and education in urban areas.
• Delayed marriages and declining fertility intentions among young adults.
• Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on family planning decisions.

China’s total fertility rate remains around 1.0–1.1 children per woman — far below the 2.1 replacement level needed for population stability.

Economic and Social Implications

The accelerating aging population and shrinking workforce pose major challenges:

• Increased pressure on pension systems and healthcare resources.
• Potential labor shortages in manufacturing and services.
• Slowing economic growth as the demographic dividend fades.
• Government efforts to boost births (three-child policy, subsidies, and incentives) have shown limited success so far.

Experts project that China’s population could fall below 1 billion by 2060 and to around 800 million by 2100 if current trends continue.

As China navigates this demographic shift, policymakers face urgent decisions to balance economic growth with sustainable population policies. The 2025 NBS data underscores that the country’s population challenges are far from over.